Discounted cash flow (DCF)
Free cash flow projected 5–10 years out from real business drivers, discounted at a WACC that reflects Vietnam market risk.
Best for: manufacturing, retail, utilities, technology
Independent valuation research · HOSE · HNX · UPCoM
Know what a stock is worth before you buy it.
Fairline builds valuation models from audited financial statements — discounted cash flow, trading comparables, residual income — and publishes both the value range and every assumption behind it.
No credit card required · Cancel anytime
ABC
Market price vs. fair value
Illustrative
- Below fair value
- Above fair value
- Fair value
- Price (VND)
- 42,300
- Fair value (VND)
- 51,800
- Margin of safety
- 18.3%
Independent
No fees from the companies we cover.
Transparent
Download the Excel model and change any assumption.
Accountable
Every past valuation stays on record — including the misses.
Methods
Three lenses, one value range
No single method fits every business. We pick the model that matches how the company makes money, then cross-check to arrive at a range you can trust.
Trading comparables
P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA against domestic and regional peers, adjusted for differences in growth and return on equity.
Best for: sectors with many similar listed companies
Residual income (RI)
Value built from book value plus returns earned above the cost of equity — the standard for financials, where free cash flow says little.
Best for: banks, insurers, brokerages
Valuation range chart
Stock ABC · thousand VND per share
DCF (FCFF)Weight 50%
P/E compsWeight 25%
EV/EBITDAWeight 25%
P/B compsReference
52-week rangeReference
Price 42.3
Fair value 51.8
Fair value = weighted average of range midpoints: DCF 50% · P/E 25% · EV/EBITDA 25%. P/B and the 52-week range are shown for reference only.
Market data
Where Vietnam valuations stand today
Computed from daily P/E and P/B across 300+ companies listed on HOSE, HNX and UPCoM. Data as of —.
Median market P/E
—
Sectors below their 5-year median P/E
—
Each sector compared with its own history
Banks below justified P/B
—
Market P/E since 2018
Median trailing P/E of profitable listed companies, monthly
- Median P/E
- Middle 50% of stocks
- Average since 2018
View data
Sector P/E vs. its own history
Sector median P/E today against the last 5 years
- Today
- 5-year median
- 5-year range (10th–90th pct)
View data
Banks: what you pay vs. what they earn
ROE against P/B, with the residual-income justified P/B
- Bank
- Justified P/B = (ROE − g) / (r − g)
View data
Source: Fairline Research database. P/E excludes loss-making companies. For information only — not investment advice.
Valuation calculator
Estimate intrinsic value in 30 seconds
A two-stage discounted earnings model: five years of high growth, then a stable long-term rate. Move the sliders to see how sensitive value is to each assumption.
Estimated intrinsic value
— VND/share
- Margin of safety
- —
- Implied P/E
- —
- PV of 5-year earnings
- —
- PV of terminal value
- —
Sensitivity (thousand VND/share)
Rows: required return · Columns: long-term growth · Outlined cell: current inputs
Portfolio construction
From fair value to position size
Knowing what a stock is worth is half the job. The other half is how much of it to own. Six allocation methods, each with a different idea of what “balanced” means.
1
Mean-variance (Markowitz)
Finds the mix with the highest return per unit of risk on the efficient frontier. Powerful, but sensitive to return estimates — it likes to concentrate.
max (wᵀμ − rf) / √(wᵀΣw)
Needs: expected returns · covariance
2
Black-Litterman
Starts from the returns the market implies, then tilts toward your views — our fair-value estimates — in proportion to confidence. Steadier than raw Markowitz.
π = δΣwmkt blended with views Q
Needs: market caps · views · covariance
3
Risk parity
Every holding contributes the same amount of risk. No return forecasts at all, so there is nothing to get wrong on that side.
wi(Σw)i = wj(Σw)j
Needs: covariance
4
Kelly criterion
Sizes positions to maximize long-run growth given your edge. Full Kelly is brutal in drawdowns, so we use half Kelly, capped at 100% invested.
f* = ½ Σ⁻¹(μ − rf)
Needs: expected returns · covariance
5
Minimum variance
The lowest-volatility mix available. Ignores returns entirely and leans on calm, low-correlation names.
min wᵀΣw
Needs: covariance
6
Equal weight
One over N in everything. Surprisingly hard to beat out of sample — the benchmark every other method has to clear.
wi = 1 / N
Needs: nothing
Same six stocks, six different portfolios
Long-only weights from each method
View data
Risk vs. expected return
Each method’s portfolio against the efficient frontier
- Efficient frontier
- 1Method (numbered as above)
- Single stock
View data
Illustrative sample — not a recommendation to buy these stocks.
Process
From financial statements to a value range
-
01
Collect
Three years of audited consolidated statements, the latest quarterly filings, annual reports and AGM resolutions.
-
02
Normalize
Strip out one-offs — asset disposals, provision reversals, revaluation gains — so value rests on core earnings.
-
03
Model
Link all three statements and forecast from volume, pricing and margins — never by extrapolating past growth.
-
04
Stress-test
Sensitivity grids plus bear, base and bull scenarios. The output is a range, not a single number.
Pricing
Start free, upgrade when you need more
Basic
Free
For investors getting started
- 3 valuation reports per month
- Valuation calculator
- Weekly valuation newsletter
Investor
VND 199,000/month
For serious individual investors
- Full valuation report library
- Downloadable, editable Excel models
- Alerts when price enters the value range
- Portfolio allocation with all six methods
- Updates after every quarterly filing
Institutional
Custom
For funds, brokerages and family offices
- Everything in Investor
- Valuation data API
- Bespoke research
- Multiple user seats
FAQ
Common questions
Is fair value the same as a target price?
No. A target price is usually tied to a 12-month horizon and market expectations. Fair value is an estimate of intrinsic value based on future cash flows — the market may take years to reflect it, or never do.
Where does the data come from?
Audited consolidated financial statements, quarterly filings, annual reports and AGM documents published by companies on HOSE, HNX and their investor relations sites.
How often are reports updated?
After every quarterly filing, and whenever an event changes a core assumption — a share issuance, an acquisition, or a shift in sector regulation.
How do you value banks?
With residual income and P/B anchored to sustainable ROE. For a bank, debt is raw material rather than financing, so free cash flow carries little meaning.
Does Fairline give buy or sell recommendations?
No. We publish the value range and every assumption so you can judge for yourself. The investment decision is always yours.
Contact
Get in touch
Questions about a report, your subscription or institutional access? Send us a message.
Quick question? It may already be answered in the FAQ.
Get a free valuation report every week
One company, one model, every assumption — in your inbox Monday morning.